In this chapter
Chapter 03
This chapter tracks the monthly impact of the regional conflict that began in late February 2026 on UAE hotel demand. It also examines what the evidence suggests about when performance may return to 2025 levels. Dubai occupancy fell from 84.7% in February to about 33% in March on CoStar's count and 36% on DET's, then climbed back to 66% in August on DET's basis (TradeArabia citing S&P Global Ratings, 2026; Government of Dubai Media Office, Jan-Aug 2026). International visitors to Dubai were down 44% to 6.97 million for January to August 2026 (DET, via Skift, Jan to Aug 2026). Published forecasts for a return to 2025 levels range from Q4 2026 (Ishraq Hospitality, October 2026) to the end of 2027 (S&P Global Ratings, July 2026).
In brief
- The pre-shock peak was high: Dubai posted 84.3% occupancy and ADR AED 1,042.11 in December 2025, 84.8% for January to February 2026 and 84.7% in February alone (CoStar/STR press release; CoStar News).
- The trough came in the week ending 14 March 2026 at 22.8% occupancy, the lowest since April 2020; March as a whole was about 33% (CoStar) or 36% (DET), with some hotels in single digits.
- In the advisory samples (JLL; CBRE using CoStar), Dubai H1 2026 occupancy was 56.4% (from 81%), ADR AED 701.10 (-7%) and RevPAR AED 395.70 (down more than 35%); June alone was 51.6% with ADR AED 375.60 (-17.1%) (The National citing JLL, 2026; Skift citing CBRE report using CoStar, H1 2026).
- Abu Dhabi held up best at 66.8% H1 occupancy (from 80.3%) and RevPAR -20.3% in the same samples (Skift citing CBRE report using CoStar, H1 2026; The National citing JLL, 2026). RAKTDA's own H1 2026 series (STR data) shows occupancy of 49.3% from 72.6%, a fall of 23.3 percentage points, with ADR up 5.2% to AED 705.6, guest nights down 29.0% and RevPAR down 28.6% while arrivals rose 2.7%.
- Luxury (51.2%) and Upper Upscale (51.8%) hotels had the lowest H1 2026 occupancy in Dubai; Upper Midscale (65.7%) and Midscale (63.7%) held up best, and Luxury ADR fell most at -6.2% (Khaleej Times citing Cavendish Maxwell, H1 2026).
- DXB traffic fell 31.3% to 31.5 million passengers in H1 2026, with monthly counts climbing from 3.5 million in April to 6.3 million in July; Dubai Airports now expects about 70 million for 2026 against 95.2 million in 2025.
- Dubai announced on 2 April 2026 that hotels, hotel apartments and holiday homes could postpone hotel sales fees and the Tourism Dirham for three months from 1 April as part of an AED 1bn package; later reporting describes an AED 2.5bn package for tourism, hospitality and entertainment. The instruments and dates differ, and the current application and expiry of any relief have to be taken from the applicable DET circular (Government of Dubai Media Office, 2026; JLL, via IndexBox, 2026).
- Recovery timing views, by date: Moody's (May) and CBRE (August) say not before early 2027; S&P (July) says occupancy improves from Q4 2026 but pre-war levels are unlikely until end-2027; Cavendish Maxwell (August) forecasts full-year 2026 Dubai occupancy of 60.4% to 66.2%.
- Forward indicators are mixed: AirDNA booked nights for Dubai short-term rentals were down 36% for November 2026, 8% for December and 6% for January 2027, while Ishraq Hospitality expects 2025 levels in Q4 2026 and IHCL not until Q4 2027.
- Competitors kept growing in 2025: Saudi Arabia 29.3 million inbound tourists, Turkey 63.9 million, Egypt about 19 million (+21%), Qatar 5.1 million with 95 campaigns in 19 markets.
The baseline: where the market stood on 27 February 2026
The shock landed on the strongest winter Dubai had recorded. CoStar's December 2025 figures were 84.3% occupancy (+3.4%), ADR AED 1,042.11 (+11.1%) and RevPAR AED 878.19 (+15.0%), the highest December RevPAR since 2007, with nine consecutive nights above 80% occupancy and AED 1,000 ADR from 23 December and New Year's Eve at 94.1% occupancy, ADR AED 2,286.60 and RevPAR AED 2,151.40. December 2025 was also the first month in which Dubai received more than 2 million international visitors (Khaleej Times citing DET). CoStar put full-year 2025 occupancy at 81.1% and January to February 2026 at 84.8%, against 90% in February 2025; S&P, also using CoStar, gave February 2026 alone as 84.7%, and Moody's Analytics used 80% as its February reference. On the DET basis, 2025 closed at 80.7% occupancy and ADR AED 579. Dubai Airports had forecast 99.5 million passengers for 2026 after 95.2 million in 2025, and Dubai's 20 million visitor goal was widely expected to be reached in 2026. Hotel supply stood at 154,264 rooms in 827 establishments at end-December 2025 (DET, via Dubai Media Office).
Timeline from late February 2026
The sources date the start of the conflict to "late February" 2026 (Dubai government statement, via The National); Gulf News, citing DCT Abu Dhabi, gives 28 February 2026 as the date from which UAE tourism was significantly hit, with flight operations disrupted; the reporting does not establish that every airline or every flight was halted throughout the period (Gulf News). CoStar News and The National describe it as the Iran war. The table below lists the published events and data points in chronological order. Where a figure is a weekly or point-in-time reading it is labelled as such; weekly, monthly and half-year readings come from different samples and are not comparable with one another. Cruise entries are as logged by CruiseMapper's Dubai port news, accessed 26 October 2026.
| Date | Event or data point | Geography | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan to Feb 2026 | Dubai occupancy 84.8%; Abu Dhabi hotel guests 536,000 (Jan) and 465,000 (Feb), occupancy 85% and 86% | Dubai; Abu Dhabi | CoStar News (Iran war takes Middle East hotel performance down to lowest levels since pandemic)Industry; (Travel And Tour World (describes "supplied official figures", publisher not named)) Estimate |
| Late Feb 2026 | Regional conflict begins; UAE tourism significantly hit from 28 February with flight operations disrupted | Gulf | The National (Dubai visitor numbers begin to recover), data Dubai government statementOfficial via press; (Gulf News (Abu Dhabi records 26.6m visitors in 2025), context paragraph) Industry |
| 9 Mar 2026 | Celestyal cancels Iconic Arabia sailings and repositions; Aroya ends inaugural Gulf season early | Gulf cruise | CruiseMapper port news (Dubai, Port Rashid-Dubai Harbour)Industry |
| w/e 14 Mar 2026 | Dubai occupancy 22.8%, lowest since w/e 11 Apr 2020 (22.6%); Abu Dhabi 39.5% | Dubai; Abu Dhabi | CoStar News (Iran war takes Middle East hotel performance down to lowest levels since pandemic)Industry |
| w/e 21 Mar 2026 (Eid al-Fitr) | Dubai 28.2% for the week, about 42% at the weekend peak; Abu Dhabi four-day average 47.7%, peak 55.7%, down 45% YoY | Dubai; Abu Dhabi | CoStar News (Iran war takes Middle East hotel performance down to lowest levels since pandemic)Industry |
| Mar 2026 (month) | Dubai about 33% (CoStar), 33.1% (CBRE/CoStar), 36% (DET); UAE 36.2%; Abu Dhabi 54%, hotel guests 273,000 | Dubai; UAE; Abu Dhabi | TradeArabia citing S&P Global Ratings; Skift citing CBRE report using CoStar; Government of Dubai Media Office (DET)Industry / Official; (Travel And Tour World (describes "supplied official figures", publisher not named)) Estimate |
| 29 Mar 2026 | Six cruise ships held in Gulf ports | Gulf | CruiseMapper port news (Dubai, Port Rashid-Dubai Harbour)Industry |
| Q1 2026 | DXB 18.6m passengers (-20.6%); Abu Dhabi hotel guests 1.274m (-10.3%), occupancy 75.0% (from 79.7%) | Dubai; Abu Dhabi | TradeArabia citing S&P Global RatingsIndustry; (Travel And Tour World (describes "supplied official figures", publisher not named)) Estimate |
| 2 Apr 2026 | Dubai announces that hotels, hotel apartments and holiday homes may postpone hotel sales fees and the Tourism Dirham for three months from 1 April; part of AED 1bn package (terms per DET circular) | Dubai | Government of Dubai Media OfficeOfficial |
| Apr 2026 | Dubai short-term rental booked nights 183,410 against 426,992 a year earlier (PriceLabs); about 5,400 hotel rooms removed from the Dubai market in April | Dubai | Rental Scale-Up (Dubai Short-Term Rental Market 2026); TradeArabia citing S&P Global RatingsIndustry |
| Apr 2026 | DXB 3.5m passengers; Global Village reopens 20 Apr, season extended to 31 May | Dubai | Khaleej Times citing Dubai Airports; The National (Global Village extends closing date to May 31); Khaleej Times (Season 31 opens Oct 14)Industry |
| 26 Apr 2026 | Celestyal ships leave the Gulf | Gulf cruise | CruiseMapper port news (Dubai, Port Rashid-Dubai Harbour)Industry |
| 6 May 2026 | Moody's Analytics projects Dubai occupancy of 10% in Q2 2026 (a forecast made at the time, not a measured result) | Dubai | Skift citing Moody's AnalyticsIndustry |
| May 2026 | DXB 4.5m passengers; Dubai AED 2.5bn relief package launched (JLL account); RAK records its strongest month on record | Dubai; RAK | Khaleej Times citing Dubai Airports; IndexBox, data JLL; Khaleej Times (Ras Al Khaimah tourism hits record 670,000 visitors), data RAKTDAIndustry / Official via press |
| Jun 2026 | DXB 5m passengers; Dubai occupancy 51.6%, ADR AED 375.60 (-17.1%); Abu Dhabi 65.2%; UAE about 53% | Dubai; Abu Dhabi; UAE | Khaleej Times citing Dubai Airports; The National citing JLLIndustry |
| 30 Jun 2026 | Etihad Rail passenger service scheduled to open Abu Dhabi to Fujairah (timetable as announced June 2026) | UAE | MEEDIndustry |
| H1 2026 | Dubai 56.4% occupancy, RevPAR -35.2%; Abu Dhabi 66.8% (CBRE/CoStar); RAK 49.3% (RAKTDA, STR data); no hotel launches in JLL's tracked set in Dubai or Abu Dhabi | UAE emirates | Skift citing CBRE report using CoStar; RAKTDA (H1 2026 infographic), data STR; The NationalIndustry / Official |
| 12 Jul 2026 | Costa cancels its winter 2027-28 Gulf programme | Gulf cruise | CruiseMapper port news (Dubai, Port Rashid-Dubai Harbour)Industry |
| Jul 2026 | DXB 6.3m passengers (+26% vs June); Premier Inn Abu Dhabi 91% occupancy, Dubai 73% | Dubai; Abu Dhabi | Khaleej Times (Reuters interview); Skift citing CBRE report using CoStarIndustry |
| 20 Jul 2026 | "A Dubai Invite" resident-referral programme opens; eligible arrivals to 31 Oct 2026 | Dubai | Bizcommunity citing DETIndustry citing DET |
| Aug 2026 | Dubai 869,000 visitors, highest since February; occupancy 66% (89% of Aug 2025); Jan to Aug 6.97m visitors (-44%); rooms approaching 149,000 | Dubai | Government of Dubai Media Office (DET); Skift (UAE Hotels Lean On Short-Haul Markets To Drive Recovery), data Dubai DETOfficial |
| 13 to 17 Sep 2026 | DET reports "recovery has begun"; Arabian Travel Market runs 14 to 17 Sep; Emirates network restored to 97% | Dubai | Government of Dubai Media Office (DET); The National (Dubai visitor numbers begin to recover), data Dubai government statementOfficial |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Emaar hotel occupancy about 60% (Alabbar to Reuters) | Dubai | Dubai Chronicle (secondary)Estimate |
| Sep 2026 | UAE occupancy 67.6%, down 12.3 points YoY (CoStar) | UAE | Skift, data CoStarIndustry |
| 30 Sep 2026 | Etihad Rail formal launch scheduled to add Dubai (Al Yalayis) and Al Dhaid stations (as announced June 2026) | UAE | MEEDIndustry |
| 14 Oct 2026 | Global Village Season 31 opens | Dubai | The National (Global Village extends closing date to May 31); Khaleej Times (Season 31 opens Oct 14)Industry |
Occupancy and visitors by month
Monthly data are incomplete, and the chart below leaves gaps where no figure was published rather than interpolating. For Dubai, CoStar's weekly series records the depth of the fall: 22.8% in the week ending 14 March 2026, the lowest since the week ending 11 April 2020 (22.6%), then 28.2% in Eid al-Fitr week with a weekend peak of about 42%. For March as a whole, CoStar gave about 33% and CBRE, using CoStar, 33.1%, while DET reported 36%; the two series conflict because of sample composition and both are shown. The National added that some hotels fell to single-digit occupancy at the height of the conflict (Dubai Media Office, via The National, 2026; The National, 2026). June was 51.6% on JLL's figures, and August 66% on DET's basis, which DET described as 89% of the August 2025 level (The National citing JLL, 2026; Government of Dubai Media Office, Jan-Aug 2026). The UAE-wide readings come from three different samples: 36.2% in March (S&P citing CoStar), about 53% in June (JLL) and 67.6% in September (CoStar), the last down 12.3 percentage points year on year.
Abu Dhabi's monthly figures come from a secondary site that describes "supplied official figures" without naming the publisher, so they are graded: hotel guests of 536,000 in January, 465,000 in February and 273,000 in March 2026; occupancy of 85%, 86% and 54%; Q1 guests 1.274m against 1.421m (-10.3%) and Q1 occupancy 75.0% against 79.7% (Travel And Tour World, Q1 2026). JLL's June figure for Abu Dhabi was 65.2% (The National citing JLL, 2026). Ras Al Khaimah published no monthly occupancy levels; AGBI reported the range as low-30s to mid-40s percent from March to June, down 19 points year on year, while RAKTDA's own half-year infographic gives 49.3% for H1 2026 against 72.6% a year earlier.
Dubai occupancy fell from 84.7% in February 2026 to 36% in March and recovered to 66% by August
Hotel occupancy, %, by month, Dec 2025 to Sep 2026. Gaps are months with no published figure. The points come from different publishers and samples (CoStar; S&P citing CoStar; DET; JLL) and do not form one consistent series. Dubai March is the DET value (36%); CoStar gives about 33%. Abu Dhabi Jan to Mar are from a secondary source graded Estimate. UAE June is 'about 53%'.
View accessible chart data
| Measure | Dubai | Abu Dhabi | UAE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2025 | 84.3 | Not published | Not published |
| Jan 2026 | Not published | 85 | Not published |
| Feb 2026 | 84.7 | 86 | Not published |
| Mar 2026 | 36 | 54 | 36.2 |
| Apr 2026 | Not published | Not published | Not published |
| May 2026 | Not published | Not published | Not published |
| Jun 2026 | 51.6 | 65.2 | 53 |
| Jul 2026 | Not published | Not published | Not published |
| Aug 2026 | 66 | Not published | Not published |
| Sep 2026 | Not published | Not published | 67.6 |
Visitor volumes are published for fewer months. Dubai received 6.97 million international overnight visitors in January to August 2026, down 44%, with August at 869,000, the strongest month since the conflict began (DET, via Skift, Jan to Aug 2026; Dubai government statement, via The National). Occupied room nights for the eight months were 21.61 million, against 43.03 million for the whole of 2024 (Government of Dubai Media Office, Jan-Aug 2026; Al Bayan citing DET). Airport traffic is the best monthly proxy: DXB handled 18.6 million passengers in Q1 2026 (-20.6%), about 26.6 million for January to May (-31.7%), 31.5 million for H1 (-31.3%) with Q2 at 13 million, April 3.5 million, May 4.5 million and June 5 million, and 6.3 million in July (+26% on June) (TradeArabia citing S&P Global Ratings; Khaleej Times citing Cavendish Maxwell, H1 2026). By September capacity had recovered to 84% of pre-war and passengers to 78% (Khaleej Times, 2026). DET said Emirates had restored 97% of its network by mid-September, after Cavendish Maxwell had put the airline at about 85% of pre-conflict capacity in August.
| Period | DXB passengers | Change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 full year | 95.2m | +3.1% | Gulf News citing Dubai AirportsIndustry |
| Q1 2026 | 18.6m | -20.6% | TradeArabia citing S&P Global RatingsIndustry |
| Apr 2026 | 3.5m | n/a | Khaleej Times citing Dubai AirportsIndustry |
| May 2026 | 4.5m | n/a | Khaleej Times citing Dubai AirportsIndustry |
| Jun 2026 | 5m | n/a | Khaleej Times citing Dubai AirportsIndustry |
| H1 2026 | 31.5m | -31.3% | Khaleej Times citing Dubai AirportsIndustry |
| Jul 2026 | 6.3m | +26% vs June | Khaleej Times (Reuters interview)Industry |
| 2026 forecast (Sep 2026) | about 70m | vs earlier target 100m | Khaleej Times (Reuters interview)Industry |
| 2026 forecast (Cavendish Maxwell, Aug 2026) | 67.6m to 79.3m | n/a | Khaleej Times citing Cavendish MaxwellIndustry |
ADR and RevPAR effects
Rates fell less than occupancy, which is the normal pattern in a demand shock, but the two Dubai rate series diverge in how much. In JLL's advisory sample, which is separate from DET's all-inventory series, Dubai's H1 2026 ADR was AED 701.10 (-7%) and RevPAR AED 395.70 (down more than 35%); in June alone ADR was AED 375.60 (-17.1%) and RevPAR AED 193.90 (-39%) (The National citing JLL; JLL, via IndexBox). Cavendish Maxwell gave the same H1 ADR of AED 701 (-7%). CBRE, using CoStar, put the Dubai H1 RevPAR decline at 35.2% and the UAE-wide fall at 31.8% with occupancy down nearly 28 points. JLL's UAE aggregate for H1 was 58% occupancy, ADR AED 680.60 and RevPAR AED 394.20, down about one third, and for June about 53% occupancy, ADR AED 396.90 and RevPAR AED 209.40 (The National citing JLL, 2026). JLL also summarised RevPAR as down 31% year to date to June (The National, 2026). STR's Middle East aggregate to end-July showed occupancy down 19% and RevPAR down 21% (AGBI citing WTTC, STR, HVS, 2026).
On the DET all-inventory basis, Dubai's ADR for January to August 2026 was AED 470 with hotel revenue above AED 6bn (Emirates 24, Jan-Aug 2026). That compares with AED 531 for January to October 2025 and AED 579 for full-year 2025 on the same basis (Arabian Business reporting DET City Briefing, Jan-Oct 2025; DET, via Dubai Media Office). JLL's June 2026 sample ADR of AED 375.60 is below the DET all-inventory ADR for 2025 of AED 579; the two series are not interchangeable, but the comparison indicates how far branded upper-tier hotels discounted in the trough.
Abu Dhabi's rates held better. JLL's H1 2026 figures were ADR AED 668.30 (-4.3%) and RevPAR AED 446.60 (down more than 20%), and for June ADR AED 486.80 (-2.1%) and RevPAR AED 317.60 (-12.1%) (The National citing JLL; JLL, via IndexBox). The secondary Q1 series graded even shows Abu Dhabi ADR rising 3.6% to USD 170.39 in Q1 2026 with RevPAR down only 1.4% to USD 130.88, though March alone fell to ADR USD 141.96 and RevPAR USD 77.11 (Travel And Tour World). Ras Al Khaimah's ADR rose 5.2% from AED 670.7 to AED 705.6 in H1 2026 while RevPAR fell 28.6% from AED 487.0 to AED 347.7, on RAKTDA's infographic using STR data; JLL and CBRE report the same rate and RevPAR values. RAKTDA's July release described average daily rates as in line with 2025.
Operators described the discounting directly. IHCL cut rates by up to 40% at the peak of the crisis, and Majestic Hotels expected Q4 2026 rates 15% to 20% below the prior year. In the short-term rental market, PriceLabs data showed Dubai ADR of USD 153 in March 2026 against USD 142 in March 2025, while booked nights fell from 426,992 to 183,410, so rate held while volume disappeared; the article's early-April occupancy and booking-pace figures are internally inconsistent and are not used.
| Market | Occupancy H1 2026 | Occupancy H1 2025 | ADR H1 2026 (AED) | ADR change | RevPAR H1 2026 (AED) | RevPAR change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai | 56.4% | 81% | 701.10 | -7% | 395.70 | below -35% | The National citing JLL; Skift citing CBRE report using CoStarIndustry |
| Abu Dhabi | 66.8% | 80.3% | 668.30 | -4.3% | 446.60 | -20.3% | The National citing JLL; Skift citing CBRE report using CoStarIndustry |
| Ras Al Khaimah | 49.3% (RAKTDA, STR data; also CBRE); 49.6% (JLL) | 72.6% | 705.60 | +5.2% | 347.70 | -28.6% | RAKTDA (H1 2026 infographic), data STROfficial; (The National citing JLL; Skift citing CBRE report using CoStar) Industry |
| UAE | 58% | n/a (down nearly 28 pts) | 680.60 | n/a | 394.20 | about one third; -31.8% (CBRE) | The National citing JLL; Skift citing CBRE report using CoStarIndustry |
| Dubai, June 2026 | 51.6% | n/a | 375.60 | -17.1% | 193.90 | -39% | The National citing JLLIndustry |
| Abu Dhabi, June 2026 | 65.2% | n/a | 486.80 | -2.1% | 317.60 | -12.1% | The National citing JLL; IndexBox, data JLLIndustry |
| Dubai, Jan to Aug 2026 (DET basis) | n/a (Aug 66%) | n/a | 470 | vs 579 (FY2025) | n/a | n/a | Emirates 24; Government of Dubai Media Office (DET); Dubai Media Office, data DETOfficial via press |
Performance by hotel class during the shock
Cavendish Maxwell's H1 2026 Dubai figures are the only published class split for the disruption. Occupancy was 51.2% for Luxury, 51.8% for Upper Upscale, 58.7% for Upscale, 65.7% for Upper Midscale and 63.7% for Midscale; ADR fell 6.2% for Luxury, 2% for Upper Upscale, 3.1% for Upscale, 4.4% for Upper Midscale and 2.4% for Midscale, against a citywide ADR of AED 701 (-7%) (Khaleej Times citing Cavendish Maxwell, H1 2026). The release omits the Economy class (Khaleej Times citing Cavendish Maxwell, H1 2026). In 2025 Upper Midscale had been the highest-occupancy class at 84.4% with ADR growth of 10.4%, so its 65.7% in H1 2026 is a fall of 18.7 percentage points, while Luxury's 51.2% compares with a 2025 citywide occupancy of 81% in the same firm's sample (Cavendish Maxwell; Khaleej Times citing Cavendish Maxwell). Cavendish Maxwell's separate full-year 2026 occupancy forecast of 60.4% to 66.2% is a forecast and is not treated as a realised result. Skift, citing Cavendish Maxwell, summarised the pattern: luxury and upper-upscale hotels had the steepest occupancy declines, and midscale held up better on domestic, regional and corporate demand. On the DET basis, mid-range hotel apartments were the best-performing category for January to August 2026 at 73% occupancy (Emirates 24, Jan-Aug 2026).
Upper Midscale hotels ran at 65.7% occupancy in H1 2026 while Luxury fell to 51.2%
Hotel occupancy, %, Dubai, by chain-scale class, H1 2026, Cavendish Maxwell sample (reported observations). Economy class not published.
View accessible chart data
| Measure | Occupancy H1 2026 |
|---|---|
| Upper Midscale | 65.7 |
| Midscale | 63.7 |
| Upscale | 58.7 |
| Upper Upscale | 51.8 |
| Luxury | 51.2 |
Property-level reports agree with the class pattern. Premier Inn, a midscale brand, reported 91% occupancy in Abu Dhabi in July 2026 with revenue up 2%, and 73% in Dubai with revenue down 19% (Skift citing CBRE report using CoStar, H1 2026). Emaar's hotel portfolio, concentrated in Downtown, was at about 60% in late September according to its chairman, while a secondary blog claimed prime areas (Downtown, DIFC, Palm Jumeirah) were above 80% without attribution (Dubai Chronicle, 2026). Supply also responded: about 5,400 Dubai hotel rooms were removed from the market in April 2026 and are expected back through late 2026 and 2027 (TradeArabia citing S&P Global Ratings; Zawya/TradeArabia citing S&P Global Ratings and CoStar); Cavendish Maxwell counted 727 hotels and about 152,139 rooms at H1 2026, down 1% and 0.3% on end-2025; and DET put inventory at approaching 149,000 rooms at end-August against 154,264 at end-2025, reflecting closures. JLL recorded no hotel launches in its tracked set in Dubai or Abu Dhabi in H1 2026 and no major completions in Q2; that describes the consultancy's sample, not a census of every opening (The National; JLL, via IndexBox).
Short-term rentals and holiday homes during the shock
Short-term rentals fell further than hotels and then changed shape. PriceLabs data reported by Rental Scale-Up show Dubai active listings of 35,316 in April 2026 against 31,265 a year earlier (+13.0%) but booked nights of 183,410 against 426,992 (-57.0%), revenue per listing of USD 1,615 in March 2026 against USD 2,668, and 29-night-plus stays tripling to about one third of booked nights; the article's early-April occupancy and booking-pace comparisons are internally inconsistent and are excluded. An operator index for Q2 2026 counted 33,795 active listings (+10.2%), an average stay of 6 nights (5 a year earlier) and one portfolio taking about 70% of nights from 29-night-plus stays; these are the operator's own listing population and dated snapshot, not DET licence totals, and are not combined with the PriceLabs figures. By Q3 2026 AirDNA reported UAE occupancy up about 4% but booked nights about 13% behind the prior year, listings down nearly 5% in July, early Q4 ADR up 17%, villa ADR up 12.2% and apartment ADR down 7%.
Emirate comparison: Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Ras Al Khaimah
Abu Dhabi was the most resilient market, Dubai the most exposed by volume and RAK the most exposed by percentage points. CBRE's H1 2026 figures (CoStar sample): Dubai 56.4% from 81% (-24.6 percentage points) with RevPAR -35.2%; Abu Dhabi 66.8% from 80.3% (-13.5 percentage points) with RevPAR -20.3% (Skift citing CBRE report using CoStar, H1 2026). For RAK the primary series is RAKTDA's own H1 2026 infographic (STR data): occupancy 49.3% from 72.6%, a fall of 23.3 percentage points, with ADR +5.2%; CBRE reports the same 49.3% and JLL 49.6%. Abu Dhabi's Q1 2026 hotel guests were down only 10.3% because January and February were strong at 85% and 86% occupancy before March fell to 54%; UAE-resident guests fell 30% to 156,000 and GCC guests 25.9% to 63,000 in the quarter (Travel And Tour World, Q1 2026). CoStar's weekly data show the same gap in the trough: Abu Dhabi 39.5% against Dubai 22.8% in the week ending 14 March, and 47.7% against 28.2% in Eid week.
Abu Dhabi lost 13.5 occupancy percentage points in H1 2026; Dubai lost 24.6 and Ras Al Khaimah 23.3
Hotel occupancy, %, H1 2025 versus H1 2026, by emirate. Dubai and Abu Dhabi: CoStar sample as reported by CBRE; Ras Al Khaimah: RAKTDA H1 2026 infographic, STR data
View accessible chart data
| Measure | H1 2025 | H1 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Dubai | 81 | 56.4 |
| Abu Dhabi | 80.3 | 66.8 |
| Ras Al Khaimah | 72.6 | 49.3 |
Ras Al Khaimah's arrivals and room nights moved in different directions, and RAKTDA's own H1 2026 infographic (STR data) is the primary series. Visitor arrivals rose from 654,000 in H1 2025 to 670,000 in H1 2026 (+2.7% as stated), but guest nights fell from 2.27 million to 1.61 million (-29.0%), occupancy from 72.6% to 49.3% (a fall of 23.3 percentage points), room revenue from AED 506.3 million to AED 384.9 million (-23.9%), total revenue from AED 822.0 million to AED 606.5 million (-26.2%) and RevPAR from AED 487.0 to AED 347.7 (-28.6%), while ADR rose from AED 670.7 to AED 705.6 (+5.2%) and the average stay shortened from 3.47 to 2.40 days (-30.8%) (STR, via RAKTDA). More arrivals therefore produced fewer nights and less revenue: visitors stayed for much shorter periods. Press reporting of the same release adds that domestic arrivals rose 47%, Q2 domestic arrivals 67.1%, and that May was the strongest month on record (Khaleej Times citing RAKTDA, H1 2026; RAKTDA, via Khaleej Times, H1 2026). AGBI, citing RAKTDA, STR and WTTC, filled in the composition: European guests down nearly 90% from February to April, airport arrivals down more than two thirds from January to March, and hotel occupancy in the low-30s to mid-40s percent from March to June, which it described as down 19 points year on year, a monthly-range reading that differs from the 23.3-point half-year fall in the infographic. The one northern-emirate exception was Fujairah, where the tourism department said hotels had recorded occupancy of 95% to 100% at the start of 2026, without dates.
| Indicator | Dubai | Abu Dhabi | Ras Al Khaimah | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy, trough week (w/e 14 Mar 2026) | 22.8% | 39.5% | n/a (low-30s to mid-40s Mar to Jun) | CoStar News (Iran war takes Middle East hotel performance down to lowest levels since pandemic); AGBI citing RAKTDA, STR, WTTCIndustry |
| Occupancy, March 2026 | 33% to 36% | 54% | n/a | TradeArabia citing S&P Global Ratings; Government of Dubai Media Office (DET)Industry / Official; (Travel And Tour World (describes "supplied official figures", publisher not named)) Estimate |
| Occupancy, H1 2026 (change in percentage points) | 56.4% (-24.6) | 66.8% (-13.5) | 49.3% (-23.3) | Skift citing CBRE report using CoStarIndustry; RAK (RAKTDA (H1 2026 infographic), data STR) Official |
| ADR change, H1 2026 | -7% | -4.3% | +5.2% | The National citing JLLIndustry; RAK (RAKTDA (H1 2026 infographic), data STR) Official |
| RevPAR change, H1 2026 | -35.2% | -20.3% | -28.6% | Skift citing CBRE report using CoStar; The National citing JLLIndustry; RAK (RAKTDA (H1 2026 infographic), data STR) Official |
| Guest nights, H1 2026 | n/a (21.61m occupied room nights Jan to Aug) | n/a (3.815m guest nights Q1, -3.3%) | 1.61m (from 2.27m, -29.0%) | Government of Dubai Media Office (DET)Official; (Travel And Tour World (describes "supplied official figures", publisher not named)) Estimate; (RAKTDA (H1 2026 infographic), data STR) Official |
| Visitors or guests, 2026 to date | 6.97m intl visitors Jan to Aug (-44%) | 1.274m hotel guests Q1 (-10.3%) | 670,000 arrivals H1 (from 654,000, +2.7% as stated) | Skift (UAE Hotels Lean On Short-Haul Markets To Drive Recovery), data Dubai DETOfficial; (Travel And Tour World (describes "supplied official figures", publisher not named)) Estimate; (RAKTDA (H1 2026 infographic), data STR) Official |
| Domestic or resident demand | 90,000+ A Dubai Invite applications | UAE-resident guests -30% (Q1) | Domestic arrivals +47% (H1), +67.1% (Q2), as reported by RAKTDA | Government of Dubai Media Office (DET); Travel And Tour World (describes "supplied official figures", publisher not named); Khaleej Times citing RAKTDA |
| Property-level, July 2026 (Premier Inn) | 73% occupancy, revenue -19% | 91% occupancy, revenue +2% | n/a | Skift citing CBRE report using CoStarIndustry |
Platform and OTA evidence of the hit and the recovery
The OTA channel data for 2026 are covered in Chapter 4; this section includes only the findings from the market and segment sources reviewed. The clearest platform-level evidence is AirDNA's short-term rental data: forward booked nights for Dubai were down 36% year on year for November 2026, 8% for December and 6% for January 2027, which shows the booking curve flattening month by month into the winter season. AirDNA also recorded UAE Q3 2026 occupancy up about 4% with demand about 13% behind and early Q4 ADR up 17%. PriceLabs data put Dubai short-term rental booked nights in April 2026 at 183,410 against 426,992 a year earlier. Oxford Economics reported that forward bookings via Gulf hubs for Q2 and Q3 2026 were down more than 40%, and that Middle East carriers flew about 50% fewer flights year on year in March with capacity down 37.2% in April. IHCL described India as its most reliable source market during the crisis and said it now targets short-haul markets five to six flight hours away (India, China, Russia), calling long-haul recovery "wishful thinking" while jet fuel costs are high. Story Hospitality's CEO reported fewer European and more Asian guests than in 2025 (The National, 2026).
Government relief and demand-stimulation measures
The baseline charge is the Tourism Dirham, levied in Dubai per room per night by hotel category for up to 30 consecutive nights; the 2026 relief measures are separate, temporary announcements and do not change that baseline (u.ae; Arabian Business, 2014). Dubai's first measure was announced on 2 April 2026: for three months from 1 April, hotels, hotel apartments and holiday homes could postpone hotel sales fees on room and food and beverage revenue and the Tourism Dirham, as part of an AED 1bn economic incentive package (Government of Dubai Media Office). JLL's account describes an AED 2.5bn relief package launched in May 2026 that waived the Tourism Dirham and hotel and restaurant fees, and DET's September release cited an AED 2.5bn government support package for tourism, hospitality and entertainment (JLL, via IndexBox; Government of Dubai Media Office, Jan-Aug 2026). The April deferral and the May waiver are different instruments with different dates; the AED 1bn and AED 2.5bn figures may describe successive stages of the same programme, but no source reviewed reconciles them, so both are recorded, and the current application, eligibility and expiry of any relief have to be established from the applicable DET circular rather than from this book (Government of Dubai Media Office, 2026; JLL, via IndexBox, 2026). On the demand side, "A Dubai Invite" opened on 20 July 2026 for eligible guest arrivals to 31 October, with registration by 30 September and benefits redeemable to 31 December; participating hotels (W, Westin and Le Meridien Mina Seyahi, Melia and selected IHG properties) offered discounts of up to 45% plus resort credit equal to 100% of the room rate, and no budget was disclosed (Bizcommunity citing DET, Jul-Dec 2026). More than 90,000 residents had applied by mid-September (Government of Dubai Media Office, Jan-Aug 2026; Khaleej Times citing DET, 2026). The pre-conflict Dubai Hotel Incentive Programme of October 2025, which reimburses 100% of the Municipality fee and Tourism Dirham for two years for new hotels in Dubai South, Palm Jebel Ali, Dubai Parks and Dubai Islands, remains in place as a supply-side measure (Arabian Business reporting DET City Briefing, Jan-Oct 2025).
Ras Al Khaimah's response was a domestic campaign. RAKTDA reported that its Q2 2026 "RAK Moments" campaign delivered 127,817 additional visitors, 224,000 room nights and AED 104.4m of hotel revenue; these are the authority's own reported outcomes, not independently measured incremental revenue, and the attribution method is not published. Global Village in Dubai closed temporarily, reopened on 20 April and extended its season from 10 May to 31 May 2026 without publishing a Season 30 total; Season 31 opened on 14 October 2026 (The National). No relief measure specific to Abu Dhabi, Sharjah or Fujairah hotels was found in the sources reviewed.
Analyst and operator views on recovery timing
Every forecast cited here has an evidence grade and a publication date, as expectations became more cautious during the year. In March 2026 Oxford Economics and Tourism Economics projected Middle East inbound arrivals down 11% to 27% for 2026 (against a prior forecast of +13%), a loss of 23 to 38 million visitors and USD 34bn to 56bn of spend, and WTTC's CEO said recovery after security crises was possible in "as little as two months"; UAE real GDP growth was cut to about 2.5% for 2026 and 2027 from 4.2% (TradeArabia / Gulf Daily News). On 6 May Moody's Analytics projected Dubai occupancy of 10% in Q2 2026 from 80% in February, said rates would "likely be depressed through the rest of 2026" and that "a return to pre-conflict conditions is unlikely before early next year". On 17 June ICAEW and Oxford Economics forecast GCC GDP down 2.4% in 2026 and up 8.1% in 2027, GCC inbound arrivals down about 30% in 2026, and said tourism recovery would take longer than energy (Gulf News).
On 22 July S&P Global Ratings wrote: "We expect occupancy should improve starting in the fourth quarter of 2026" and "recovery to pre-war levels is unlikely until the end of 2027". WTTC's 6 August Middle East report forecast regional travel and tourism GDP falling 14.5% from USD 386bn in 2025 to USD 330bn in 2026, the only region to decline, with 6.3% annual growth to USD 605bn by 2036; the same month it estimated 137,000 Gulf tourism job losses in 2026, 46,000 of them in the UAE, and quoted HVS calling the episode "a temporary aviation and confidence-led disruption, not a demand collapse". CBRE's 11 August report said recovery was unlikely before early 2027 and cited an unnamed forecaster's UAE inbound arrivals figure of -48%. Cavendish Maxwell's 18 August outlook gave full-year 2026 Dubai occupancy of 60.4% to 66.2%, ADR of AED 600 to 675 and DXB passengers of 67.6 million to 79.3 million, with "momentum expected to pick up from Q4". Tourise and Oxford Economics on 21 August put Middle East inbound arrivals down 32% in 2026 even if the ceasefire holds, down 59% if hostilities resume, and up 51% in 2027 under a ceasefire.
In September Dubai Airports' CEO said 2026 traffic would be about 70 million and that "conservatively, possibly by end of next year, we may reach the 100 million passenger annual target" (Khaleej Times); Arthur D Little said "the UAE is moving from resilience to recovery" (The National, 2026). On 5 October Fitch, holding RAK at A with a negative outlook, assumed Strait of Hormuz restrictions ease in the first half of 2027 and pushed Wynn's opening to September 2027. Operators quoted by Skift on 23 October split: Ishraq Hospitality expects a return to 2025 levels in Q4 2026, IHCL not until Q4 2027, and Majestic Hotels expects Q4 2026 rates 15% to 20% below last year.
| Date | Source | View on timing | Numeric forecast | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Mar 2026 | Oxford Economics / Tourism Economics; WTTC CEO | Recovery possible in "as little as two months" after security crises | Middle East inbound arrivals -11% to -27% in 2026; UAE GDP about 2.5% in 2026 and 2027 | TradeArabia / Gulf Daily NewsIndustry |
| 6 May 2026 | Moody's Analytics | Pre-conflict conditions unlikely before early 2027; depressed through rest of 2026 | Dubai occupancy 10% in Q2 2026 | Skift citing Moody's AnalyticsIndustry |
| 17 Jun 2026 | ICAEW / Oxford Economics | Tourism recovery to take longer than energy | GCC GDP -2.4% (2026), +8.1% (2027); GCC arrivals about -30% | Gulf NewsIndustry |
| 22 Jul 2026 | S&P Global Ratings | Occupancy improves from Q4 2026; pre-war levels unlikely until end-2027 | Dubai March about 33%; about 5,400 rooms removed in April | TradeArabia citing S&P Global RatingsIndustry |
| 6 Aug 2026 | WTTC | "Temporary headwinds"; growth resumes 2027 to 2036 | Middle East T&T GDP -14.5% in 2026; 6.3% CAGR to 2036 | WTTC (Middle East Travel and Tourism Faces Temporary Headwinds)Industry |
| Aug 2026 | WTTC; HVS | "Not a demand collapse" (HVS) | 137,000 Gulf jobs lost in 2026, UAE 46,000 | AGBI citing WTTC, STR, HVSIndustry |
| 11 Aug 2026 | CBRE (CoStar data) | Recovery unlikely before early 2027 | UAE inbound arrivals -48% (forecaster not named) | Skift citing CBRE report using CoStarIndustry |
| 18 Aug 2026 | Cavendish Maxwell | Momentum from Q4 2026 | Dubai FY2026 occupancy 60.4% to 66.2%; ADR AED 600 to 675; DXB 67.6m to 79.3m | Khaleej Times citing Cavendish MaxwellIndustry |
| 21 Aug 2026 | Tourise / Oxford Economics | "Lost year" in 2026; rebound in 2027 under ceasefire | Middle East arrivals -32% (2026, ceasefire), -59% (if hostilities resume), +51% (2027) | EnterpriseAM citing Tourise and Oxford EconomicsIndustry |
| 10 Sep 2026 | Dubai Airports (CEO) | 100m passengers "possibly by end of next year" (2027) | About 70m passengers in 2026 | Khaleej Times (Reuters interview)Industry |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Arthur D Little; Story Hospitality | "Moving from resilience to recovery"; not yet in line with 2025 | n/a | The NationalIndustry |
| 5 Oct 2026 | Fitch Ratings | Strait of Hormuz restrictions assumed to ease in 1H 2027 | RAK real GDP 1.5% (2026F), 5% (2027F); Wynn opening Sep 2027 | EnterpriseAM citing Fitch RatingsIndustry |
| 23 Oct 2026 | Ishraq Hospitality; IHCL; Majestic Hotels | 2025 levels in Q4 2026 (Ishraq); Q4 2027 (IHCL) | Q4 2026 rates 15% to 20% below 2025 (Majestic) | Skift; Skift, quoting Majestic HotelsIndustry |
Forecasts for the 2026 fall in Middle East inbound arrivals widened from -11% to -27% in March to -32% to -59% in August
Forecast change in inbound international arrivals, %, 2026 versus 2025, Middle East or GCC as stated, by forecaster and publication date. Single-value forecasts are shown as a point (low equals high).
View accessible chart data
| Measure | Forecast range, 2026 arrivals change (%) |
|---|---|
| Oxford Economics, Middle East, 17 Mar 2026 | -27 to -11 |
| ICAEW/Oxford Economics, GCC, 17 Jun 2026 | -30 to -30 |
| Tourise/Oxford Economics, Middle East, 21 Aug 2026 | -59 to -32 |
| Unnamed forecaster in CBRE report, UAE, 11 Aug 2026 | -48 to -48 |
Forward-booking indicators
Only a handful of forward indicators were published. AirDNA's booked nights for Dubai short-term rentals were down 36% year on year for November 2026, 8% for December and 6% for January 2027 as at late October. The same provider reported early Q4 ADR up 17% year on year for UAE short-term rentals, and two operators expected Q4 occupancy of 88% and rates near AED 1,000 (Homevy) or rates 15% above 2025 (Frank Porter) (Skift citing AirDNA, Q3 2026). Dubai Airports described "stronger momentum in the second half" after July's 6.3 million passengers. Pre-contracted business events give a longer view: Dubai Business Events submitted 747 bids in 2025 and secured 504 events to be hosted through 2029, wins for future events rather than events held in 2025, and H1 2025 wins included Token2049 2026 (15,000) and Google conferences in 2026 and 2028 (4,000 each) (Dubai Media Office; Khaleej Times / Dubai Media Office). Whether those 2026 events ran as planned is not recorded in the sources reviewed. Majestic Hotels said long stays are 25% to 30% of its business and expected Q4 rates 15% to 20% below last year.
Forward booked nights for Dubai short-term rentals were 36% down for November 2026 but only 6% down for January 2027
Change in booked nights year on year, %, Dubai short-term rentals, by stay month, as reported 23 October 2026
View accessible chart data
| Measure | Booked nights YoY change (%) |
|---|---|
| Nov 2026 | -36 |
| Dec 2026 | -8 |
| Jan 2027 | -6 |
Competitor destinations: 2025 results, 2026 targets and marketing pushes
While UAE demand fell in 2026, competing destinations reported record results for 2025 and continued their marketing campaigns. Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Tourism reported about 123 million tourists in 2025 (+6%), 29.3 million inbound with spend of SAR 176.6bn, 93.3 million domestic with SAR 127.1bn, total spend of SAR 304bn (USD 80bn, +7%), about 1.03 million tourism jobs and a direct tourism GDP share of 4.9% in 2024; a preliminary January release had given 122 million and about SAR 300bn (Arab News citing Ministry of Tourism / SPA; Gulf News citing Ministry of Tourism). International arrivals, domestic trips and total trips are separate definitions in these releases. Vision 2030 targets 150 million tourists and tourism at 10% of GDP; an earlier 2025 forecast is superseded by the observed release and is not used; the marketing budget is not disclosed (Gulf News citing Ministry of Tourism; Semafor, 2024). Saudi Arabia's construction pipeline of 387 projects and 105,648 rooms is more than four times the UAE's 24,985 rooms within the same pipeline definition, which counts projects in planning or construction, not operating stock (Lodging Econometrics, Q2 2026).
Qatar Tourism reported 5.1 million international visitors in 2025 (+3.7%), with 41,700 hotel rooms at mid-2025 (49% five-star), tourism GDP of QR 55bn in 2024 (about 8% of GDP) and a target of 10% to 12% by 2030; it ran 95 integrated marketing campaigns across 19 markets with 35 global partnerships in 2025, drew 35% of arrivals from the GCC and 25% from Europe, and published no marketing spend figure. Oman's Ministry of Heritage and Tourism reported 2.4 million visitors in 2025 (+11%) and hotel revenue of OMR 297m (+22%), with Europe at 659,571 (+22%), and set 2026 targets of 3 million hotel guests and 30% hotel revenue growth; a ministry briefing reported by Oman Observer gave about 3.9 million visitors by end-2025 and OMR 69.8m of direct promotional returns, so the two Omani figures conflict and both are shown. Egypt recorded about 19 million tourists in 2025 (+21%). Turkey received 63.9 million international tourists (+2.7%) with receipts of USD 65.2bn (+6.8%) (L'Echo touristique citing TurkStat, 2025). Thailand fell 7.23% to 32,974,321 arrivals with China down 33.55% and India up 16.82%, and set a 2026 target of 36.7 million. The Maldives reached 2,080,134 arrivals by 10 December 2025 and lowered its 2026 target to 2.2 million from 2.3 million (Edition.mv).
| Destination | 2025 visitors | Change | 2026 target or forecast | Marketing push in notes | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | ~123m total; 29.3m inbound | +6% | 150m tourists by 2030 (Vision 2030) | Marketing budget not disclosed | Arab News citing Ministry of Tourism / SPA; Gulf News citing Ministry of Tourism; SemaforOfficial via press |
| Qatar | 5.1m international | +3.7% | Tourism 10% to 12% of GDP by 2030 | 95 campaigns in 19 markets; 35 partnerships (2025) | Qatar News Agency citing Qatar Tourism; Oxford Business GroupOfficial / Industry |
| Oman | 2.4m (AGBI) or ~3.9m (Oman Observer), conflicting | +11% | 3m hotel guests; hotel revenue +30% (2026) | OMR 69.8m direct promotional returns | AGBI citing Ministry of Heritage and Tourism; Oman Observer citing ministry briefingIndustry / Official via press |
| Egypt | ~19m | +21% | n/a | n/a | Business Today Egypt citing Ministry of Tourism and AntiquitiesOfficial via press |
| Turkey | 63.9m | +2.7% | n/a | n/a | L'Echo touristique citing TurkStatIndustry |
| Thailand | 32.97m | -7.23% | 36.7m (TAT target) | n/a | Portail Asie compiling MoTS / Bank of Thailand / TATEstimate |
| Maldives | 2.08m (to 10 Dec) | record | 2.2m (lowered from 2.3m) | n/a | Edition.mvIndustry |
| Dubai (reference) | 19.59m intl overnight | +5% | Jan to Aug 2026: 6.97m (-44%) | A Dubai Invite; AED 2.5bn support | Dubai Media Office (Dubai's tourism industry achieves third successive record-breaking year), data DET; Skift (UAE Hotels Lean On Short-Haul Markets To Drive Recovery), data Dubai DET; Government of Dubai Media Office (DET)Official |
No 2026 year-to-date visitor figures for Saudi Arabia or Qatar were captured, so it is not possible to say from the sources reviewed whether they gained share during the UAE's downturn; see the gaps section. The UAE's own pre-conflict campaign benchmark is the February 2025 edition of "World's Coolest Winter", which the Ministry credited with about AED 1.9bn of hotel revenue (+86.9%), 4.4 million guests (+62%) and 224.7 million reach (Khaleej Times / WAM, Jan-Sep 2025). Destination marketing budgets for DET, DCT Abu Dhabi, RAKTDA, the Saudi Tourism Authority and Visit Qatar were not found (Oxford Business Group, 2024; Semafor, 2024).
What the recovery means for marketing budgets and targeting
Gaps in the evidence
Sources & evidence notes
Evidence grades describe provenance. Verification status records the supplied editorial review, not a guarantee of accuracy. Cite the original publisher when using a figure.
Cavendish Maxwell (Dubai hotel market expands to 158,700 rooms as luxury segment dominates) qualified
158,700 rooms in 770 establishments; +3,400 rooms (+2.2%); 10 new hotels; high-end (Upscale/UU/Luxury) nearly 70%; occupancy 81% (+3.8); Upper Midscale 84.4% (highest); ADR AED 746 (+8.7%); Upper Midscale ADR +10.4%; 4,600 rooms due 2026, nearly 90% upper tiers
Scope: Dubai, full year 2025
Date: Early 2026 (undated; sister article refers to week three of the conflict)
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY
All figures match. Two precision caveats: the article states occupancy 'up 3.8%' without specifying percentage points, and the 'nearly 90%' upper-tier share refers to hotel openings, not rooms. Publication date not shown on the page.
Open original source ↗Khaleej Times citing Cavendish Maxwell (Dubai hotel occupancy to recover in H2 2026 after sharp first-half decline) qualified
H1 2026 occupancy by segment: Luxury 51.2%, Upper Upscale 51.8%, Upscale 58.7%, Upper Midscale 65.7%, Midscale 63.7%; ADR change: Luxury -6.2%, UU -2%, Upscale -3.1%, Upper Midscale -4.4%, Midscale -2.4%; citywide ADR Dh701 (-7%); 727 hotels, about 152,139 rooms; FY2026 forecast occupancy 60.4 to 66.2%, ADR Dh600 to 675
Scope: Dubai, H1 2026
Date: 18 Aug 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY
H1 2026 segment occupancy values are reported observations; the 60.4–66.2% full-year occupancy range is a forecast. Keep the two separate.
Open original source ↗Khaleej Times citing DET (Dubai tourism hits record 19.59m visitors in 2025) qualified
December 2025 was the first month to exceed 2m international visitors
Scope: Dubai, Dec 2025
Date: 9 Feb 2026
Evidence grade: OFFICIAL (via press)
Core 2025 DET figures checked against the original official release carried by WAM. The DET website itself returned a page shell. International overnight visitors, available rooms, occupancy, ADR, RevPAR and occupied room nights are distinct measures; rounded growth rates are publisher values.
Open original source ↗CoStar/STR press release (Dubai hotel industry posts best December performance in nearly two decades) qualified
December 2025 occupancy 84.3% (+3.4%), ADR AED 1,042.11 (+11.1%), RevPAR AED 878.19 (+15.0%); highest December RevPAR since 2007; NYE occupancy 94.1%, ADR AED 2,286.60, RevPAR AED 2,151.40; nine consecutive nights above 80% occupancy and AED 1,000 ADR from 23 Dec
Scope: Dubai, Dec 2025
Date: 14 Jan 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY
CoStar original result is visible in search extraction but full-page re-fetch returned 403. Do not label as a successful original-page re-verification. Retain only qualified historical release data.
Open original source ↗CoStar News (Iran war takes Middle East hotel performance down to lowest levels since pandemic) verified
2025 occupancy 81.1%; Jan to Feb 2026 84.8%; Feb 2025 90%; week ending 14 Mar 2026 22.8% (lowest since w/e 11 Apr 2020 at 22.6%); Eid al-Fitr week (w/e 21 Mar 2026) 28.2%; Eid weekend peak about 42%. Abu Dhabi Eid four-day average 47.7%, peak 55.7%, down 45% YoY; w/e 14 Mar 39.5%
Scope: Dubai and Abu Dhabi, Mar 2026
Date: Late Mar 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY
All figures match the CoStar News article. Industry grade (STR/CoStar data).
Open original source ↗Zawya/TradeArabia citing S&P Global Ratings and CoStar (Gulf hospitality sector recovery to begin in Q4 but likely gradual) verified
Dubai occupancy about 33% in March 2026 from 84.7% in February; UAE 36.2%; about 5,400 rooms left the Dubai market in April 2026, expected back through late 2026 and 2027; recovery to pre-war levels unlikely until end 2027
Scope: Dubai/UAE, Mar to Apr 2026
Date: 22 Jul 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY
All values match the page. Secondary reporting of S&P Global Ratings and CoStar; grade Industry as recorded.
Open original source ↗Khaleej Times citing DET (Dubai hotels record 66% occupancy in August) qualified
August 2026 occupancy 66% (89% of Aug 2025 level); March 2026 36%; about 149,000 rooms at end Aug; 21.61m occupied room nights Jan to Aug; 869,000 visitors Aug; 6.97m Jan to Aug; source mix W Europe 20%, South Asia 17%, GCC 16%, CIS/E Europe 14%; Dh2.5bn government support package; "A Dubai Invite" 90,000+ applications
Scope: Dubai, Aug 2026 and Jan to Aug 2026
Date: 13 Sep 2026
Evidence grade: OFFICIAL (via press)
Official statistics transmitted by secondary reporting, or an official page available only in search extracts. Where a primary full page was unavailable, retain with an attribution and a qualification, not as fully re-verified original-source evidence. Preserve each metric’s period and definition.
Open original source ↗The National (Dubai says tourism recovery has begun) qualified
Some hotels fell to single-digit occupancy at the height of the conflict; Dubai added about 200,000 residents in 2026 to about 4.7m (conflicts with #58)
Scope: Dubai, 2026
Date: 13 Sep 2026
Evidence grade: OFFICIAL (via press)
Both statements are on the page. The single-digit occupancy line is unattributed in the body and the 4.7m/200,000 population figure is the newspaper's narration with no named source, so it is press-grade, not Official, and should not be used in demand calculations; the reviewer's recommendation to rely on the separately recorded Dubai Statistics Centre population series stands. Grade should be downgraded from Official to Industry/press.
Open original source ↗Dubai Media Office (Dubai continues business events momentum at IMEX Frankfurt) qualified
Dubai Business Events 2025: 747 bids, 504 wins (+15%), 272,262 expected delegates (+29%), 481 supported events (429 in 2024); ICCA #1 globally for attendees per association meeting; wins include SIBOS 2029 (12,000), SPE ATCE 2028 (8,000), Apimondia 2027 (5,000)
Scope: Dubai, 2025
Date: 21 May 2026
Evidence grade: OFFICIAL
Primary DET annual release confirms 747 bids and 504 successful bids; other numerical fields in the originally cited release could not be fully fetched and are removed.
Open original source ↗Khaleej Times / Dubai Media Office (Dubai Business Events drives continued growth in H1 2025) qualified
DBE H1 2025: 249 wins, 391 bids (+29%), conversion 64% (58% in H1 2024), 127,087 expected delegates (+35%); wins include Token2049 2026 (15,000), Google conferences 2026/2028 (4,000 each)
Scope: Dubai, H1 2025
Date: 23 Jul 2025
Evidence grade: OFFICIAL (via press)
Official statistics transmitted by secondary reporting, or an official page available only in search extracts. Where a primary full page was unavailable, retain with an attribution and a qualification, not as fully re-verified original-source evidence. Preserve each metric’s period and definition.
Open original source ↗CruiseMapper port news (Dubai, Port Rashid-Dubai Harbour) qualified
2026 disruption: Celestyal cancelled Iconic Arabia sailings and repositioned (9 Mar 2026); Aroya ended inaugural Gulf season early (9 Mar); six ships held in Gulf ports (29 Mar); Celestyal ships left Gulf 26 Apr; Costa cancelled winter 2027-28 Gulf programme (12 Jul 2026)
Scope: Gulf/Dubai, Mar to Jul 2026
Date: Mar to Jul 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY
All five dated events are present on the page as headlines with short summaries, so the chronology stands. Qualified because CruiseMapper is an aggregator whose news tab changes over time; cite with access date and, for publication, prefer the cruise lines' own announcements for each event.
Open original source ↗The National (Global Village extends closing date to May 31); Khaleej Times (Season 31 opens Oct 14) not re-verified
Global Village Season 30 (2025-26): temporary closure linked to regional disruption, reopened 20 Apr 2026, closing extended from 10 May to 31 May 2026; no Season 30 visitor total published; Season 31 opens 14 Oct 2026
Scope: Dubai, 2026
Date: 10 May 2026; 14 Sep 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY (press)
Outside the tiered re-fetch scope; reproduced as recorded with its grade.
Open original source ↗Rental Scale-Up (Dubai Short-Term Rental Market 2026) qualified
Dubai STR April 2026 (PriceLabs data): active listings 35,316 (31,265 in Apr 2025); booked nights 183,410 (426,992); occupancy 17% first nine days of April vs 85%; ADR $153 Mar 2026 ($142 Mar 2025), $132 April; RevPAR $132 to $22; 29+ night stays tripled, about one-third of booked nights; median booking window 3 days (6 in 2025); revenue per listing $1,615 Mar 2026 ($2,668)
Scope: Dubai, Mar to Apr 2026
Date: 17 Apr 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY (internal arithmetic inconsistencies noted on page)
Source has inconsistent early-April occupancy/booking-pace comparisons. Keep counts with exact date scope; derive change from those counts rather than copying inconsistent rates.
Open original source ↗Khaleej Times citing First Class Property Management UAE STR Index qualified
Dubai STR Q2 2026: 33,795 active listings (+10.2% YoY); peak 36,500 in Jan 2026; average stay 6 nights (5 a year earlier); Palm Jumeirah ADR AED 682 (highest); Downtown occupancy 59%, Creek Harbour 66%; operator portfolio 87% with about 70% of nights from 29+ night stays; gross yield STR 7.2% vs long-term 5.2% (1BR)
Scope: Dubai, Q2 2026
Date: 29 Jul 2026
Evidence grade: ESTIMATE (operator index)
Operator index, Q2 2026, methodology not fully disclosed. Listing counts and district outcomes are Estimates, not DET licence totals or a like-for-like AirDNA comparison.
Open original source ↗Skift citing AirDNA (For UAE Short-Term Rentals, Occupancy Is Recovering) not re-verified
AirDNA UAE: Q3 2026 occupancy up about 4%; booked nights about 13% behind last year; available listings fell nearly 5% in July 2026; early Q4 ADR +17% YoY; July villa ADR +12.2%, apartment ADR -7%; rise in 28+ day rentals; Homevy 88% occupancy, Q4 rates near AED 1,000, 6.5-day stay; Frank Porter rates 15% above 2025, 8-day stay
Scope: UAE, Q3 2026
Date: 2 Sep 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY
Outside the tiered re-fetch scope; reproduced as recorded with its grade.
Open original source ↗u.ae (UAE Government portal) verified
Dubai Tourism Dirham: AED 7 to 20 per room per night by category, max 30 consecutive nights; RAK AED 15 per room per night
Scope: Dubai, RAK
Date: undated
Evidence grade: OFFICIAL
Official government page opens and supports the range, 30-night cap and RAK AED 15. It does not list the per-category amounts within AED 7 to 20 and carries no last-updated date; if category-level amounts are published elsewhere in the text, they need a DET source.
Open original source ↗Arabian Business qualified
Tourism Dirham by category: 5-star AED 20, 4-star AED 15, 3-star AED 10, 1/2-star and guest houses AED 7; deluxe hotel apartments AED 20, superior AED 15, standard AED 10; separate line on bill; AED 15,000 fine for inaccurate records; effective 31 Mar 2014
Scope: Dubai, from 2014
Date: 2014 (older, still in force per u.ae)
Evidence grade: OFFICIAL via press
The official resolution supports the fee structure, effective date and AED 15,000 fine, but the category labels differ from the Arabian Business guide: the resolution's hotel apartment tiers are luxury 20 / deluxe 15 / standard 10 (the press guide says deluxe 20 / superior 15), two-star hotels pay AED 10 not 7, and the resolution does not expressly require a separate line item (it says the fee must be accounted for in the invoice). The 2014 schedule is the original instrument; any later amendment to rates should be checked with DET before publication.
Open original source ↗Al Bayan citing DET (Arabic) not re-verified
Hotel room revenue AED 18.11bn in 2024 (+4.68%), AED 17.3bn in 2023; occupied room nights 43.03m (2024) vs 41.7m (2023)
Scope: Dubai, 2024
Date: 18 Feb 2025
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY citing OFFICIAL
Outside the tiered re-fetch scope; reproduced as recorded with its grade.
Open original source ↗Arabian Business reporting DET City Briefing not re-verified
Jan-Oct 2025: 15.7m visitors (+5%), occupancy 79.4% (77% prior year), ADR AED531 (+6%), RevPAR AED421 (+9%), 152,875 rooms in 820 establishments at end-Oct; Hotel Incentive Programme (Oct 2025) reimburses 100% Municipality fee and Tourism Dirham for 2 years for new hotels in Dubai South, Palm Jebel Ali, Dubai Parks, Dubai Islands
Scope: Dubai, Jan-Oct 2025
Date: Dec 2025 (n/d on page)
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY citing OFFICIAL
Outside the tiered re-fetch scope; reproduced as recorded with its grade.
Open original source ↗Khaleej Times / WAM (Ministry of Economy and Tourism) qualified
UAE Jan-Sep 2025: 23.27m hotel guests (+4.9%), 79.3m hotel nights, revenue Dh35.9bn (+7.2%), occupancy 79.2%, occupied rooms 46.17m (+3.5%), ADR Dh557 (+4.2%), 216,248 rooms in 1,246 establishments; tourism GDP Dh257.3bn (~13% of economy, year not stated, matches WTTC 2024 figure); "World's Coolest Winter" Feb 2025: hotel revenue ~Dh1.9bn (+86.9%), 4.4m guests (+62%), 224.7m reach
Scope: UAE, Jan-Sep 2025
Date: 18 Dec 2025
Evidence grade: OFFICIAL via WAM
Dated source retrieved and core result matched. Retain with explicit publisher attribution, period and metric; a secondary report does not constitute independent verification of an underlying unpublished dataset. Forecasts and target figures remain labelled.
Open original source ↗Travel And Tour World (describes "supplied official figures", publisher not named) not re-verified
Abu Dhabi Q1 2026: hotel guests 1.274m vs 1.421m Q1 2025 (-10.3%); Jan 536,000, Feb 465,000, Mar 273,000; guest nights 3.815m (-3.3%); occupancy Q1 75.0% vs 79.7%; Jan 85%, Feb 86%, Mar 54%; ADR USD 170.39 (+3.6%), March USD 141.96; RevPAR USD 130.88 (-1.4%), March USD 77.11; UAE-resident guests 156,000 (-30%); GCC guests 63,000 (-25.9%)
Scope: Abu Dhabi, Q1 2026 by month
Date: 8 Aug 2026
Evidence grade: ESTIMATE (unverified attribution; figures consistent with DCT monthly format)
Outside the tiered re-fetch scope; reproduced as recorded with its grade.
Open original source ↗Khaleej Times citing RAKTDA not re-verified
RAK H1 2026: 670,000+ visitors (record H1, +~2.5%); domestic arrivals +47% YoY; Q2 domestic +67.1%; Q2 campaign delivered 224,000 room nights, Dh104.4m hotel revenue, 127,817 additional visitors; ADR in line with 2025; 2030 target 3.5m visitors; 12,000 hotel keys planned at Marjan Beach; Wynn on track for 2027
Scope: RAK, H1 2026
Date: 23 Jul 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY citing OFFICIAL
Outside the tiered re-fetch scope; reproduced as recorded with its grade.
Open original source ↗AGBI citing RAKTDA, STR, WTTC qualified
RAK H1 2026: hotel occupancy down 19 points YoY, low-30s to mid-40s% from March to June; European guests down nearly 90% Feb-Apr; airport arrivals down more than two-thirds Jan-Mar; length of stay down nearly a third; RAK airport passed 1m passengers in 2025 (+51%), pre-war target 1.5m by 2027; 91% of pipeline five-star or ultra-luxury; RAK 1.35m overnight visitors 2025, AED 39bn FDI
Scope: RAK, H1 2026
Date: Aug 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY
RAKTDA H1 2026 primary infographic supplies comparable 2025/2026 totals and shows that arrivals growth did not imply revenue growth.
Open original source ↗TradeArabia / TTN citing Fujairah Department of Tourism and Antiquities not re-verified
Fujairah hotels at record 95% to 100% occupancy at start of 2026 (dates not specified)
Scope: Fujairah, early 2026
Date: 20 Apr 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY
Outside the tiered re-fetch scope; reproduced as recorded with its grade.
Open original source ↗Government of Dubai Media Office (DET) qualified
Dubai Jan-Aug 2026: 6.97m international visitors; August ~869,000 (highest since Feb); 21.61m occupied room nights; Aug occupancy 66% (89% of Aug 2025); March occupancy 36%; room inventory approaching 149,000 at end-Aug; source markets W Europe 20%, S Asia 17%, GCC 16%, CIS/E Europe 14%; Emirates restored 97% of network; AED 2.5bn government support package for tourism, hospitality and entertainment; 90,000+ residents applied to A Dubai Invite; ATM 14-17 Sep 2026
Scope: Dubai, Jan-Aug 2026
Date: 13 Sep 2026
Evidence grade: OFFICIAL
Official DET figures via re-fetched secondary reports, with original-page fetch unsuccessful. Qualify provenance while retaining period and definitions. Do not combine monthly occupancy with year-to-date visitors.
Open original source ↗Emirates 24 not re-verified
Dubai Jan-Aug 2026 hotel revenue above Dh6bn; ADR Dh470; mid-range hotel apartments 73% occupancy (highest category)
Scope: Dubai, Jan-Aug 2026
Date: https://www.emirates247.com/business/dubai-hotel-revenues-hit-dh6-billion-in-eight-months-as-697-million-visitors-arrive-in-2026/6251
Evidence grade: 2 Oct 2026
Outside the tiered re-fetch scope; reproduced as recorded with its grade.
Source locator as recorded: 7 citing DETKhaleej Times citing Cavendish Maxwell qualified
Dubai H1 2026: citywide ADR Dh701 (-7%); occupancy by segment Luxury 51.2%, Upper Upscale 51.8%, Upscale 58.7%, Upper Midscale 65.7%, Midscale 63.7%; ADR change Luxury -6.2%, UU -2%, Upscale -3.1%, Midscale -2.4%, UM -4.4%; 727 hotels, ~152,139 rooms (hotels -1%, rooms -0.3% vs end-2025); DXB Jan-May ~26.6m passengers (-31.7%); 2026 forecast occupancy 60.4% to 66.2%, ADR Dh600 to Dh675, DXB 67.6m to 79.3m passengers; "momentum is expected to pick up from Q4"
Scope: Dubai, H1 2026 and FY2026 forecast
Date: 18 Aug 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY
H1 2026 segment occupancy values are reported observations; the 60.4–66.2% full-year occupancy range is a forecast. Keep the two separate.
Open original source ↗Gulf News citing Cavendish Maxwell (STR and Data.Dubai) not re-verified
Dubai H1 2026: occupancy 56.4%; ADR Dh701 (-7%); pipeline ~39 hotels / ~9,520 rooms 2026-2029, ~3,150 rooms by end-2026; Emirates ~85% of pre-conflict capacity
Scope: Dubai, H1 2026
Date: 18 Aug 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY
Outside the tiered re-fetch scope; reproduced as recorded with its grade.
Open original source ↗The National citing JLL qualified
JLL H1 2026: Abu Dhabi occ 66.8%, ADR Dh668.30 (-4.3%), RevPAR Dh446.60 (down >20%); Dubai occ 56.4%, ADR Dh701.10 (-7%), RevPAR Dh395.70 (down >35%); RAK occ 49.6%, ADR Dh705.60 (+5.2%), RevPAR Dh347.70 (-28.6%); UAE occ 58%, ADR Dh680.60, RevPAR Dh394.20 (down ~one third). June 2026: Dubai occ 51.6%, ADR Dh375.60 (-17.1%), RevPAR Dh193.90 (-39%); Abu Dhabi occ 65.2%, ADR Dh486.80, RevPAR Dh317.60 (-12.1%); UAE occ ~53%, ADR Dh396.90, RevPAR Dh209.40
Scope: UAE, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, RAK; H1 and June 2026
Date: 11 Aug 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY
Dubai and Abu Dhabi values are advisory/CoStar samples, separate from DET inventory. RAK occupancy corrected to official 49.3%, not 49.6%. Difference in occupancy is measured in percentage points.
Open original source ↗Skift citing CBRE report using CoStar qualified
CBRE/CoStar H1 2026: UAE occupancy down nearly 28pp, RevPAR -31.8%; Dubai occupancy 56.4% from 81% (-24.6pp), RevPAR -35.2%; Abu Dhabi 66.8% from 80.3% (-13.5pp), RevPAR -20.3%; RAK 49.3% from 72.6% (-23.3pp), ADR +5.2%; Dubai March 2026 occupancy 33.1%; Premier Inn July 2026: Abu Dhabi 91% occ (revenue +2%), Dubai 73% (revenue -19%); recovery unlikely before early 2027; forecast UAE inbound arrivals -48% (forecaster not named)
Scope: UAE emirates, H1 2026
Date: 11 Aug 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY
Dubai and Abu Dhabi values are advisory/CoStar samples, separate from DET inventory. RAK occupancy corrected to official 49.3%, not 49.6%. Difference in occupancy is measured in percentage points.
Open original source ↗TradeArabia citing S&P Global Ratings verified
Dubai occupancy fell to ~33% in March 2026 from 84.7% in February (CoStar); UAE 36.2%; ~5,400 Dubai hotel rooms removed from market in April 2026, expected back through late 2026 and 2027; DXB Q1 2026 18.6m passengers (-20.6%); "We expect occupancy should improve starting in the fourth quarter of 2026"; "recovery to pre-war levels is unlikely until the end of 2027"
Scope: Dubai and UAE, Feb-Apr 2026, forecast
Date: 22 Jul 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY
All figures and quotes match. Industry grade (S&P Global Ratings via trade press).
Open original source ↗Skift citing Moody's Analytics qualified
Moody's Analytics: Dubai hotel occupancy projected to drop to 10% in Q2 2026 from 80% in February; "occupancy rates will likely be depressed through the rest of 2026"; "a return to pre-conflict conditions is unlikely before early next year"
Scope: Dubai, Q2 2026 forecast
Date: 6 May 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY
A May-2026 forecast of Q2 occupancy, not a measured Q2 result and not a current recovery consensus. Exclude the 10% forecast from realised-results charts.
Open original source ↗The National qualified
JLL: RevPAR -31% YTD to June 2026; no hotel launches in Dubai or Abu Dhabi in H1 2026; Dubai Aug occupancy 66%, March 36%; Arthur D Little: "The UAE is moving from resilience to recovery"; Story Hospitality CEO: not yet in line with 2025, fewer European and more Asian guests
Scope: UAE, H1 and Aug-Sep 2026
Date: 14 Sep 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY
Industry interpretation and observed series have separate roles. No-new-openings statement is a particular consultancy sample, not proof of no property opening in the emirates.
Open original source ↗Dubai Chronicle (secondary) not re-verified
Emaar hotel occupancy ~60% (Alabbar to Reuters, 21 Sep 2026); prime areas (Downtown, DIFC, Palm Jumeirah) above 80% (unattributed); DXB ~50 carriers, 217 destinations, 99 countries (unattributed); Dubai population +161,000 Jan-Jul 2026 to 4.74m
Scope: Dubai, Sep 2026
Date: 23 Sep 2026
Evidence grade: ESTIMATE (secondary blog; Emaar figure attributed to Reuters)
Outside the tiered re-fetch scope; reproduced as recorded with its grade.
Open original source ↗Lodging Econometrics qualified
Middle East construction pipeline Q2 2026: 724 projects / 178,003 rooms (+11% / +10% YoY); under construction 330 / 82,353; Saudi Arabia 387 / 105,648; Egypt 167 / 35,185; UAE 103 / 24,985 (+3% projects); Oman 27 / 4,624; Dubai 60 / 13,828; Riyadh 106 / 21,666; Jeddah 62 / 14,435; Makkah 34 / 21,689; openings 2026 83 hotels / 15,149 rooms; 2027 91 / 22,875; 2028 102 / 24,284
Scope: Middle East by country and city, Q2 2026
Date: 13 Aug 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY
Lodging Econometrics construction pipeline, not completed operational hotel stock. Stages sum: 330+173+221=724 projects and 82,353+52,678+42,972=178,003 rooms.
Open original source ↗EnterpriseAM citing Fitch Ratings not re-verified
Fitch: Wynn Al Marjan budget raised to USD 5.7bn from USD 5.2bn; opening moved from 1Q 2027 to September 2027 (shipping and supply-chain disruption); gaming taxes and tourism fees now not expected until 2028; RAK real GDP 6% (2025), 1.5% (2026F), 5% (2027F), 4.5% (2028F); pre-conflict 2026-27 average expected 7.5%; Fitch assumes Strait of Hormuz restrictions ease in 1H 2027; S&P forecasts RAK 1.8% growth 2026
Scope: RAK, Oct 2026
Date: 5 Oct 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY
Outside the tiered re-fetch scope; reproduced as recorded with its grade.
Open original source ↗Gulf News citing Dubai Airports qualified
DXB 2025: 95.2m passengers (+3.1%); Q4 2025 25.1m (+5.9%); 2026 forecast 99.5m (pre-conflict); India 11.9m, Saudi Arabia 7.5m, UK 6.3m, Pakistan 4.3m, US 3.3m; London top city 3.9m
Scope: Dubai, 2025
Date: 11 Feb 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY citing company
Dated source retrieved and core result matched. Retain with explicit publisher attribution, period and metric; a secondary report does not constitute independent verification of an underlying unpublished dataset. Forecasts and target figures remain labelled.
Open original source ↗Khaleej Times citing Dubai Airports qualified
DXB H1 2026: 31.5m passengers (-31.3%); Q2 13m; April 3.5m, May 4.5m, June 5m; "stronger momentum in the second half"
Scope: Dubai, H1 2026
Date: 26 Aug 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY citing company
Dated source retrieved and core result matched. Retain with explicit publisher attribution, period and metric; a secondary report does not constitute independent verification of an underlying unpublished dataset. Forecasts and target figures remain labelled.
Open original source ↗Khaleej Times (Reuters interview) qualified
Dubai Airports expects ~70m passengers in 2026 (earlier target 100m); capacity recovered to 84% of pre-war, passengers to 78%; July 2026 6.3m (+26% vs June); Griffiths: "Conservatively, possibly by end of next year, we may reach the 100 million passenger annual target"
Scope: Dubai, Sep 2026
Date: 10 Sep 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY citing company
Dated source retrieved and core result matched. Retain with explicit publisher attribution, period and metric; a secondary report does not constitute independent verification of an underlying unpublished dataset. Forecasts and target figures remain labelled.
Open original source ↗MEED not re-verified
Etihad Rail passenger service: tickets on sale 23 Jun 2026; Abu Dhabi to Fujairah from 30 Jun 2026; formal launch 30 Sep 2026 adding Dubai (Al Yalayis) and Al Dhaid; Al Dhafra stations 30 Dec 2026; Sharjah 30 Mar 2027; Abu Dhabi to Dubai 57 min, Abu Dhabi to Fujairah 105 min, Dubai to Fujairah 69 min; 200 km/h; up to 400 passengers per train; ~10m annual riders expected; fares from AED 55
Scope: UAE, 2026-2027
Date: 26 Jun 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY
Outside the tiered re-fetch scope; reproduced as recorded with its grade.
Open original source ↗AGBI citing WTTC, STR, HVS not re-verified
WTTC 2026: Gulf to lose ~137,000 T&T jobs (GCC employment ~3.2m in 2025, -4.3%); UAE 46,000 jobs; Saudi 69,000; Middle East T&T activity -14.5% in 2026 after +5.3% in 2025 (only region to decline); STR: Middle East occupancy -19%, RevPAR -21% year to end-July; 6.3% CAGR 2026-2036; WTTC March estimate USD 600m per day cost; HVS: "a temporary aviation and confidence-led disruption, not a demand collapse"
Scope: Gulf / UAE, 2026
Date: Aug 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY
Outside the tiered re-fetch scope; reproduced as recorded with its grade.
Open original source ↗TradeArabia / Gulf Daily News qualified
Oxford Economics / Tourism Economics (Mar 2026): Middle East inbound arrivals -11% to -27% in 2026 (vs +13% prior forecast); 23m to 38m visitors lost; USD 34bn to 56bn spend lost; WTTC CEO: recovery possible in "as little as two months" after security crises; UAE real GDP ~2.5% in 2026 and 2027 (from 4.2%); UAE 6.8% projected 2027 (unattributed)
Scope: Middle East / UAE, 2026
Date: 17 Mar 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY
Page supports the arrivals range, visitor and spend loss ranges, the WTTC quote and the 2.5% / 4.2% GDP figures. The 6.8% 2027 figure is unattributed and internally inconsistent with the article's 2.5% figure, so it does not meet the standard and should be dropped.
Open original source ↗EnterpriseAM citing Tourise and Oxford Economics qualified
Tourise / Oxford Economics (Aug 2026): Middle East inbound arrivals -32% in 2026 even if ceasefire holds (vs +14% pre-war expectation); -59% if hostilities resume; 2027 rebound +51% under ceasefire; Middle East carriers ~50% fewer flights YoY in March, capacity -37.2% in April; forward bookings via Gulf hubs for Q2-Q3 down 40%+
Scope: Middle East, 2026-2027
Date: 21 Aug 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY
Scenario forecast, not realised arrivals. A 32% decline followed by 51% growth compounds to 1.0268 of the initial level: about 2.7% above, not a 19-point net increase.
Open original source ↗Gulf News verified
ICAEW / Oxford Economics Q2 2026: GCC GDP -2.4% in 2026, +8.1% in 2027; GCC inbound arrivals -~30% in 2026; "tourism recovery is expected to take longer" than energy
Scope: GCC, 2026-2027
Date: 17 Jun 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY
All elements match. Secondary reporting of the ICAEW/Oxford Economics report; cite the ICAEW report directly if the PDF is obtainable.
Open original source ↗Government of Dubai Media Office qualified
Dubai fee relief: from 1 Apr 2026 for three months hotels, hotel apartments and holiday homes may postpone 100% of sales fees on room and F&B revenue and the Tourism Dirham; part of AED 1bn economic incentive package
Scope: Dubai, Apr 2026
Date: 2 Apr 2026
Evidence grade: OFFICIAL
Temporary fee deferral and later fee-waiver reporting have different dates and instruments. Current application and expiry not established; remove precise current fee treatment and blanket exemption claims.
Open original source ↗Bizcommunity citing DET not re-verified
A Dubai Invite: eligible guest arrivals 20 Jul to 31 Oct 2026; register guests by 30 Sep 2026; benefits redeemable to 31 Dec 2026; hotel discounts up to 45% plus resort credit equal to 100% of room rate at participating hotels (W, Westin and Le Meridien Mina Seyahi, Melia, selected IHG); attractions and Careem benefits; no budget disclosed
Scope: Dubai, Jul-Dec 2026
Date: Jul 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY citing OFFICIAL
Outside the tiered re-fetch scope; reproduced as recorded with its grade.
Open original source ↗Arab News citing Ministry of Tourism / SPA qualified
Saudi Arabia 2025: ~123m tourists (+6%); inbound 29.3m with spend SAR 176.6bn; domestic 93.3m with SAR 127.1bn; total spend SAR 304bn (USD 80bn, +7%); tourism direct GDP share 4.9% (2024); ~1.03m tourism jobs; non-religious overnight stays 52% of inbound
Scope: Saudi Arabia, 2025
Date: 18 Jun 2026
Evidence grade: OFFICIAL via press
Dated source retrieved and core result matched. Retain with explicit publisher attribution, period and metric; a secondary report does not constitute independent verification of an underlying unpublished dataset. Forecasts and target figures remain labelled.
Open original source ↗Semafor superseded
Saudi Arabia 2024: 116m total tourist visits; 30m international visitors; SAR 284bn spend; 2025 forecast up to 130m; 2030 target 150m tourist trips; USD 800bn investment plan; marketing budget not disclosed
Scope: Saudi Arabia, 2024-2030
Date: 27 Oct 2025
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY
A 2025 forecast is superseded by actual 2025 releases. Use observed Saudi 2025 measures in H80 and preserve international/domestic trip definitions.
Open original source ↗Gulf News citing Ministry of Tourism qualified
Saudi Arabia 2025 preliminary: 122m+ visitors (+5%), ~SAR 300bn spend (+6%); Vision 2030 targets 150m tourists and 10% of GDP
Scope: Saudi Arabia, 2025
Date: 21 Jan 2026
Evidence grade: OFFICIAL via press
Dated source retrieved and core result matched. Retain with explicit publisher attribution, period and metric; a secondary report does not constitute independent verification of an underlying unpublished dataset. Forecasts and target figures remain labelled.
Open original source ↗Qatar News Agency citing Qatar Tourism qualified
Qatar 2025: 5.1m international visitors
Scope: Qatar, 2025
Date: 1 Jan 2026
Evidence grade: OFFICIAL
Dated source retrieved and core result matched. Retain with explicit publisher attribution, period and metric; a secondary report does not constitute independent verification of an underlying unpublished dataset. Forecasts and target figures remain labelled.
Open original source ↗Oxford Business Group qualified
Qatar: 5.1m visitors 2025 (+3.7%); 41,700 hotel rooms mid-2025 (49% five-star, ~24% hotel apartments); tourism GDP QR55bn (USD 15.1bn, ~8% of GDP) in 2024 (+14%); target 10-12% of GDP by 2030; 95 integrated marketing campaigns across 19 markets and 35 global partnerships in 2025; GCC 35% of arrivals, Europe 25%; air 61%, land 32%, sea 7%; no marketing spend figure
Scope: Qatar, 2024-2025
Date: 29 Jul 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY
Dated source retrieved and core result matched. Retain with explicit publisher attribution, period and metric; a secondary report does not constitute independent verification of an underlying unpublished dataset. Forecasts and target figures remain labelled.
Open original source ↗AGBI citing Ministry of Heritage and Tourism not re-verified
Oman 2025: 2.4m visitors (+11%); hotel revenue OMR 297m (~USD 770m, +22%); Europe 659,571 (+22%), Asia 345,526, GCC 212,798, US 79,420 (+29%); Omani travellers 857,481; 2026 target 3m hotel guests and +30% hotel revenue
Scope: Oman, 2025
Date: Jan 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY citing OFFICIAL
Outside the tiered re-fetch scope; reproduced as recorded with its grade.
Open original source ↗Oman Observer citing ministry briefing qualified
Oman: ~3.9m visitors by end-2025 (conflicts with row 85); 325,000+ hotel nights 2025 (as reported); tourism GDP share ~2.7% end-2024 (from 1.6% in 2020); OMR 69.8m direct promotional returns; 533 hotel approvals / 7,923 rooms 2020-2025; OMR 2.6bn tourism investment in Tenth Five-Year Plan
Scope: Oman, 2020-2025
Date: 27 Jan 2026
Evidence grade: OFFICIAL via press (definitions differ from row 85)
Dated source retrieved and core result matched. Retain with explicit publisher attribution, period and metric; a secondary report does not constitute independent verification of an underlying unpublished dataset. Forecasts and target figures remain labelled.
Open original source ↗Edition.mv not re-verified
Maldives: 2,080,134 arrivals as of 10 Dec 2025 (record; 2024 full year 2,046,615); China 318,032, Russia 260,416, UK 186,762; 2026 target lowered to 2.2m (2025 target was 2.3m)
Scope: Maldives, 2025
Date: 12 Dec 2025
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY citing Ministry of Tourism
Outside the tiered re-fetch scope; reproduced as recorded with its grade.
Open original source ↗L'Echo touristique citing TurkStat verified
Turkey 2025: 63.9m international tourists (+2.7%, record); receipts USD 65.2bn (+6.8%); 11.1m Turkish citizens resident abroad (17.5%); 1.1m French
Scope: Turkey, 2025
Date: 4 Feb 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY citing OFFICIAL
Page opens and all figures match. Figures are TurkStat preliminary data reported by trade press; grade Industry (secondary reporting of official data).
Open original source ↗Business Today Egypt citing Ministry of Tourism and Antiquities qualified
Egypt 2025: ~19m tourists (+21%, record)
Scope: Egypt, 2025
Date: 4 Jan 2026
Evidence grade: OFFICIAL via press
Dated source retrieved and core result matched. Retain with explicit publisher attribution, period and metric; a secondary report does not constitute independent verification of an underlying unpublished dataset. Forecasts and target figures remain labelled.
Open original source ↗Portail Asie compiling MoTS / Bank of Thailand / TAT not re-verified
Thailand 2025: 32,974,321 international arrivals (-7.23% from 35.55m in 2024); foreign tourism revenue THB 1.54tn (-4.71%); Malaysia 4.52m, China 4.47m (-33.55%), India 2.49m (+16.82%), Russia 1.90m; 2026 TAT target 36.7m
Scope: Thailand, 2025
Date: updated 22 Apr 2026
Evidence grade: ESTIMATE (compiled site citing official data)
Outside the tiered re-fetch scope; reproduced as recorded with its grade.
Open original source ↗Dubai Media Office (Dubai's tourism industry achieves third successive record-breaking year), data DET verified
19.59 million international overnight visitors, up 5% from 18.72 million in 2024
Scope: Dubai, full year 2025
Date: 9 Feb 2026
Evidence grade: OFFICIAL
Core 2025 DET figures checked against the original official release carried by WAM. The DET website itself returned a page shell. International overnight visitors, available rooms, occupancy, ADR, RevPAR and occupied room nights are distinct measures; rounded growth rates are publisher values.
Open original source ↗Dubai Media Office, data DET verified
Hotel occupancy 80.7%, up from 78.2% in 2024; ADR AED 579, up 8% from AED 538
Scope: Dubai, full year 2025
Date: 9 Feb 2026
Evidence grade: OFFICIAL
Core 2025 DET figures checked against the original official release carried by WAM. The DET website itself returned a page shell. International overnight visitors, available rooms, occupancy, ADR, RevPAR and occupied room nights are distinct measures; rounded growth rates are publisher values.
Source locator as recorded: same as #1Dubai Media Office, data DET verified
154,264 hotel rooms across 827 establishments
Scope: Dubai, end December 2025
Date: 9 Feb 2026
Evidence grade: OFFICIAL
Core 2025 DET figures checked against the original official release carried by WAM. The DET website itself returned a page shell. International overnight visitors, available rooms, occupancy, ADR, RevPAR and occupied room nights are distinct measures; rounded growth rates are publisher values.
Source locator as recorded: same as #1The National (Dubai visitor numbers begin to recover), data Dubai government statement qualified
869,000 international overnight visitors in August 2026, the strongest month since the conflict began in late February; 6.97 million visitors January to August 2026
Scope: Dubai, Aug 2026 and Jan to Aug 2026
Date: 13 Sep 2026
Evidence grade: OFFICIAL via press
Official DET figures via re-fetched secondary reports, with original-page fetch unsuccessful. Qualify provenance while retaining period and definitions. Do not combine monthly occupancy with year-to-date visitors.
Open original source ↗The National, data Dubai Media Office qualified
Hotel occupancy 66% in August 2026; city average 36% in March 2026, with some hotels in single digits
Scope: Dubai, Aug 2026 and Mar 2026
Date: 13 Sep 2026
Evidence grade: OFFICIAL via press
Official DET figures via re-fetched secondary reports, with original-page fetch unsuccessful. Qualify provenance while retaining period and definitions. Do not combine monthly occupancy with year-to-date visitors.
Source locator as recorded: same as #5The National not re-verified
Dubai's long-standing goal of 20 million visitors a year was widely expected to be reached in 2026 before the conflict
Scope: Dubai target
Date: 13 Sep 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY
Outside the tiered re-fetch scope; reproduced as recorded with its grade.
Source locator as recorded: same as #5Skift (UAE Hotels Lean On Short-Haul Markets To Drive Recovery), data Dubai DET qualified
International visitors fell 44% to 6.97 million in the first eight months of 2026
Scope: Dubai, Jan to Aug 2026
Date: 23 Oct 2026
Evidence grade: OFFICIAL via press
Jan–Aug 2026 visitors 6.97m versus 12.5m in Jan–Aug 2025 gives a 44.24% decrease; published 44% is consistent with rounded counts.
Open original source ↗Skift, data CoStar qualified
UAE hotel occupancy 67.6% in September 2026, down 12.3 percentage points year on year
Scope: UAE, Sep 2026
Date: 23 Oct 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY
Industry reporting checked. Operator-specific outcomes and forward bookings are not market-wide realised results. Keep the October 2026 observation date and distinguish outlook from actual performance.
Source locator as recorded: same as #10Skift, data Cavendish Maxwell qualified
Luxury and upper-upscale hotels had the steepest occupancy declines; midscale held up better on domestic, regional and corporate demand
Scope: UAE, 2026
Date: 23 Oct 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY
Industry reporting checked. Operator-specific outcomes and forward bookings are not market-wide realised results. Keep the October 2026 observation date and distinguish outlook from actual performance.
Source locator as recorded: same as #10Skift, quoting Saurabh Tiwari, VP Middle East, IHCL qualified
IHCL cut rates by up to 40% at the peak of the crisis; India its most reliable source market; targets short-haul markets India, China, Russia, five to six flight hours away; long-haul recovery "wishful thinking" while jet fuel costs are high
Scope: UAE, 2026
Date: 23 Oct 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY
Industry reporting checked. Operator-specific outcomes and forward bookings are not market-wide realised results. Keep the October 2026 observation date and distinguish outlook from actual performance.
Source locator as recorded: same as #10Skift, quoting Majestic Hotels qualified
Majestic Hotels expects Q4 2026 rates 15 to 20% below last year; long stays are 25 to 30% of its business
Scope: Dubai, Q4 2026 outlook
Date: 23 Oct 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY
Industry reporting checked. Operator-specific outcomes and forward bookings are not market-wide realised results. Keep the October 2026 observation date and distinguish outlook from actual performance.
Source locator as recorded: same as #10Skift qualified
Ishraq Hospitality expects a return to 2025 levels in Q4 2026; IHCL does not expect 2025 levels until Q4 2027
Scope: UAE recovery timing
Date: 23 Oct 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY
Industry reporting checked. Operator-specific outcomes and forward bookings are not market-wide realised results. Keep the October 2026 observation date and distinguish outlook from actual performance.
Source locator as recorded: same as #10Skift, data AirDNA qualified
AirDNA booked nights for Dubai short-term rentals: November 2026 down 36% year on year, December down 8%, January 2027 down 6%
Scope: Dubai short-term rentals, forward bookings
Date: 23 Oct 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY
Industry reporting checked. Operator-specific outcomes and forward bookings are not market-wide realised results. Keep the October 2026 observation date and distinguish outlook from actual performance.
Source locator as recorded: same as #10IndexBox (UAE Hospitality Report H1 2026), data JLL qualified
Dubai H1 2026: occupancy 56.4%, ADR AED 701.10 (down 7%), RevPAR AED 395.70 (down more than 35%); June 2026: occupancy 51.6%, ADR AED 375.60 (down 17.1%), RevPAR AED 193.90 (down nearly 39%); supply about 159,300 keys with about 4,900 due to open
Scope: Dubai, H1 and June 2026
Date: 11 Aug 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY
Dubai and Abu Dhabi values are advisory/CoStar samples, separate from DET inventory. RAK occupancy corrected to official 49.3%, not 49.6%. Difference in occupancy is measured in percentage points.
Open original source ↗IndexBox, data JLL not re-verified
Abu Dhabi H1 2026: occupancy 66.8%, ADR AED 668.30 (down 4.3%), RevPAR AED 446.60 (down more than 20%); June: occupancy 65.2%, ADR AED 486.80 (down 2.1%), RevPAR AED 317.60 (down 12.1%); supply 33,650 keys, flat, about 120 more due by end 2026
Scope: Abu Dhabi, H1 and June 2026
Date: 11 Aug 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY
Outside the tiered re-fetch scope; reproduced as recorded with its grade.
Source locator as recorded: same as #17IndexBox, data JLL qualified
Dubai AED 2.5 billion relief package launched in May 2026 waived the Tourism Dirham and hotel and restaurant fees; no major hotel projects completed in Dubai or Abu Dhabi in Q2 2026
Scope: Dubai and Abu Dhabi, 2026
Date: 11 Aug 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY
Temporary fee deferral and later fee-waiver reporting have different dates and instruments. Current application and expiry not established; remove precise current fee treatment and blanket exemption claims.
Source locator as recorded: same as #17Khaleej Times (Ras Al Khaimah tourism hits record 670,000 visitors), data RAKTDA qualified
Ras Al Khaimah H1 2026: more than 670,000 visitors, a record; domestic arrivals up 47%; May the strongest month on record; Q2 domestic campaign 224,000 room nights, AED 104.4 million hotel revenue, 127,817 additional visitors; average daily rates in line with 2025
Scope: RAK, H1 2026
Date: 23 Jul 2026
Evidence grade: OFFICIAL via press
RAKTDA H1 2026 primary infographic supplies comparable 2025/2026 totals and shows that arrivals growth did not imply revenue growth.
Open original source ↗WTTC (Middle East Travel and Tourism Faces Temporary Headwinds) not re-verified
Middle East travel and tourism GDP USD 386 billion in 2025, forecast USD 330 billion in 2026 (down 14.5%), the only region forecast to decline; forecast growth 6.3% a year 2026 to 2036 to USD 605 billion; UAE sector 11.9% of GDP and 13.6% of employment; UAE international visitor spending nearly USD 57 billion
Scope: Middle East and UAE
Date: 6 Aug 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY
Outside the tiered re-fetch scope; reproduced as recorded with its grade.
Open original source ↗Gulf News (Abu Dhabi records 26.6m visitors in 2025), context paragraph qualified
UAE tourism has been significantly hit since 28 February 2026, with flight operations halted
Scope: UAE, from 28 Feb 2026
Date: 6 Apr 2026
Evidence grade: INDUSTRY
Flight disruption is dated context; do not imply every airline or every flight was halted throughout the period.
Open original source ↗RAKTDA (H1 2026 infographic), data STR verified
Ras Al Khaimah H1 2025 vs H1 2026 (STR data): visitor arrivals 654K vs 670K (+2.7% as stated); guest nights 2.27 million vs 1.61 million (-29.0%); occupancy 72.6% vs 49.3%; ADR AED 670.7 vs AED 705.6 (+5.2%); room revenue AED 506.3 million vs AED 384.9 million (-23.9%); total revenue AED 822.0 million vs AED 606.5 million (-26.2%); RevPAR AED 487.0 vs AED 347.7 (-28.6%); average length of stay 3.47 vs 2.40 days (-30.8%)
Scope: Ras Al Khaimah, H1 2025 and H1 2026
Date: Aug 2026
Evidence grade: OFFICIAL
TradeArabia (Fujairah hotels start 2026 strong), data Fujairah Department of Tourism and Antiquities verified
Fujairah hotels recorded occupancy of 95% to 100% at the start of 2026, described as record levels
Scope: Fujairah, early 2026
Date: 20 Apr 2026
Evidence grade: OFFICIAL via press
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